AGP Executive Report

Aviation Safety: The EU Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) extended its conflict-zone warning and urged airlines to keep avoiding airspace over Iran, Iraq and Lebanon until July 1, citing possible short-term ceasefire violations near the Strait of Hormuz and the fragile Israel–Hezbollah situation affecting Lebanon. Regional Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off a Gulf tour from Abu Dhabi, aiming to reassure allies worried that the US–Iran framework deal—reportedly including a $300 billion fund—is too generous, while also addressing broader security concerns. Oil & Hormuz Watch: Crude prices fell to the lowest levels since February as tanker movement through Hormuz improved and markets priced in a possible return of Iranian exports. Counter-Terrorism: The US designated a Nigerian financier and three Nigeria-based bureaux de change, alleging they helped ISIS move money across borders, with the network described as spanning Europe, the Middle East and West Africa. Iraq Angle: Iraq’s role in regional risk remains in focus as Hormuz access and security advisories directly affect Iraqi economic exposure.

World Cup & Iraq: France booked its World Cup knockout spot with a 3-0 win over Iraq in Philadelphia, with Kylian Mbappé scoring twice (his 100th cap) and Ousmane Dembélé adding a third; the match was delayed nearly two hours by storms. Sports & Politics: France coach Didier Deschamps will miss the final group game against Norway after his mother died, with assistant Guy Stephan taking charge in the interim. Iraq’s Legal Win: Iraq avoided a $53 million payout after the Supreme Judicial Council said a US Supreme Court ruling dismissed a Jordanian company’s lawsuit against firms linked to Iraq’s Ministry of Industry and Minerals. Judicial Integrity: The Supreme Judicial Council also denied an arrest warrant circulating online against former PM Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, saying the document is fabricated. Energy & Environment: The World Bank ranked Iraq among the world’s top gas-flaring countries in 2025, highlighting the need for stronger regulation and investment to cut waste. Local Development: Iraq’s Tourism Authority nominated five villages—Byara, Rawanduz, Hiror, Merki, and Abu Subat—for the UN Tourism “Best Tourism Villages” initiative for 2026. Security & Finance: The US designated a Nigerian national and companies as alleged ISIS financial facilitators, part of a broader crackdown on cross-border terror financing.

Kurdistan Power Struggle: The KDP accused the PUK of a “policy of imposition,” saying it is obstructing formation of the next Kurdistan Regional Government and disregarding voters after repeated election-result deadlocks over senior posts, including the interior ministry. World Cup as Soft Power: France advanced to the World Cup last 32 with a 3-0 win over Iraq in Philadelphia despite a nearly two-hour thunderstorm delay; Kylian Mbappé scored twice in his 100th France appearance, while Ousmane Dembélé added a third. Regional Sports Momentum: Norway also booked the last 32, beating Senegal 3-2 as Erling Haaland scored twice and the team celebrated with the viral “Viking Row.” US-Iran Diplomacy Pressure: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to pitch Washington’s Iran peace deal to Gulf Arab leaders in the UAE, then Kuwait and Bahrain, as allies worry about missile limits, a proposed $300bn reconstruction fund, and Tehran’s influence over oil shipping lanes. Security and Energy Crosswinds: Turkey detained 209 people linked to ISIL and banned demonstrations ahead of a NATO summit, while Reuters reported global gas flaring hit a six-year high in 2025, driven largely by Russia and Iran.

Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s Integrity Commission urged the UK to step up cooperation on stolen-asset recovery and mutual legal assistance, saying corruption crimes are now cross-border and require stronger extradition and tracking of illicit funds. Electricity Sector Shake-Up: The Electricity Minister dismissed and replaced senior distribution officials in Al-Diwaniyah and Baghdad’s Rusafa, following corruption arrests and asset freezes tied to the Central Electricity Distribution Company. Kirkuk Coexistence Spotlight: Kirkuk officials welcomed the Chaldean Catholic Patriarch’s visit, framing the province as a model of coexistence and highlighting reconstruction and social stability efforts in liberated areas. Iraq-Türkiye Economic & Energy Talks: Prime Minister al-Zaidi and Erdogan discussed water management, crude exports via the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline, and the Development Road corridor, with Ankara inviting Baghdad to visit and urging Turkish investment. Border Reopening: Iran and Iraq agreed to reopen the Sheik Saleh crossing to passenger traffic, with extended market hours and tighter security coordination to curb smuggling. CBI Currency Policy: The Central Bank said it will not change official exchange rates and completed steps to reintegrate restricted banks into US-dollar transfers under its reform program. World Cup Politics on the Pitch: France and Iraq meet in Philadelphia as Iraq seeks its first World Cup point, while France leans on Kylian Mbappé’s record-setting form.

World Cup Focus: Kylian Mbappé set France milestones in his first match, and now Iraq faces a tough Group I test as France prepare for Monday’s clash in Philadelphia, with Iraq coach Graham Arnold joking about “three goalkeepers” after Mbappé’s record-breaking form. Regional Diplomacy: In Erbil, mediators Qatar and Pakistan said US-Iran talks in Switzerland showed “encouraging progress,” creating a high-level committee and a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days, alongside a communication line to reduce Strait of Hormuz missteps. Energy & Shipping: Oil prices slid after the talks ended, while Strait of Hormuz traffic reportedly dropped sharply again after Iran’s renewed closure threat—raising fresh uncertainty for Iraq’s export outlook. Iraq Governance & Economy: Baghdad pushed banking reform as Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi emphasized completing reforms at the Central Bank, while Al-Hikma said a cabinet reshuffle aims at weapons monopoly, higher revenues, and financial restructuring. Kurdistan Development: Kurdistan tourism investment has created over 20,000 jobs, with 80% filled by locals, as the region markets new projects worth $7.5 billion. Local Services: Nineveh recorded multiple agricultural fires driven by post-harvest burning and strong winds, with Civil Defense teams containing blazes. Religious Affairs: Iran’s Khamenei funeral schedule includes a stop in Iraq, with rites in Najaf and Karbala before burial in Mashhad.

Central Bank Leadership: Iraq appointed Nizar Hussein as the new governor of the Central Bank of Iraq, with PM Ali al-Zaidi stressing banking reform and modernization aligned with international standards. Oil Output Push: The Oil Ministry ordered companies to ramp up production and exports, targeting a return to pre-crisis levels of about 4.2–4.3 million bpd and boosting shipments via southern terminals after Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Northern Energy Move: Iraq began drilling its first northern exploration well since 1978, in Amerli, Saladin—an effort to revive neglected hydrocarbon potential. Kirkuk–Dubai Connectivity: Kirkuk International Airport launched its first direct flights to Dubai, with three weekly services aimed at boosting trade, tourism, and regional mobility. Government Formation & Finance: Iraq said it will complete its cabinet in early July ahead of PM Ali al-Zaidi’s US trip, while also rejecting external borrowing and pointing to alternative revenue steps. Rights & Accountability: Iraq’s High Commission for Human Rights condemned police abuse in Karbala and Kirkuk after viral videos, noting investigations and training follow-ups. Security Appointments: Bassem Al-Badri took over as head of the National Security Service, calling for stronger intelligence coordination to protect stability. Women’s Rights Case: Activists condemned the slow investigation into the murder of women’s rights activist Yanar Mohammed, demanding arrests and transparency. Kurdistan–Baghdad Outlook: Nechirvan Barzani reiterated that Kurdistan’s security is tied to federal Iraq and urged depoliticizing the Peshmerga under a unified professional force. Missing Persons Pressure: Families in the Saqlawiyah case say groups linked to security institutions are pressuring them to stay silent about disappearances since 2016.

Fiscal Pressure & Budget Deadlock: Iraq is facing unprecedented strain as Parliament again fails to pass a budget on schedule, leaving the government to run on emergency spending while oil revenues weaken and the IMF warns of heightened exposure to regional shocks. Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s Integrity Commission says it is reviewing government contracts and pursuing corruption-linked cases, following a reshuffle that also touched financial and security bodies. Electricity Relief Plan: Baghdad approved free diesel for private generators during July-August to ease summer power shortages, with conditions tied to grid stability and daily electricity provision. Security Incident in Anbar: A small drone crash near Parliament Speaker Haibat al-Halbousi’s guest house in Karma caused no major damage; investigations are ongoing. Kurdistan Social Data: In the Kurdistan Region, marriage and divorce registrations rose in 2024-2025, while psychological abuse made up over 40% of domestic violence cases reported. Iraq-Iran War Diplomacy: US and Iran delegations are in Switzerland to implement a US-Iran MoU, with Hormuz reopening and Lebanon ceasefire central to the talks—developments that directly affect Iraq’s energy outlook.

Oil & Security Coordination: Baghdad and Erbil are stepping up coordination to protect Kurdistan’s oil fields after attacks cut exports sharply, with Iraqi officials reviewing security measures and discussing guarantees for infrastructure and payments to foreign operators. Energy Infrastructure: Iraq’s Ministry of Oil says it has started drilling its first northern exploration well since 1978, aiming to restart long-suspended activity and boost reserves. Customs & Governance: An Iraqi MP is calling for an urgent probe into alleged improper use of the ASYCUDA customs system at the Al-Mundhiriyah border crossing in Diyala, where more than 800 trucks are reportedly stuck. Militias & State Integration: Analysts warn that Iran-backed armed groups may be integrated into state institutions after the US-Iran deal, but Iraq’s limited sovereignty makes real curbs difficult. Humanitarian & Migration: A refugee affairs official says Iraqis’ asylum applications in Europe reached 806,593 from 2015-2026, with deaths and disappearances reported during irregular migration attempts. Kurdistan Culture: Duhok International Film Festival opened submissions for its 13th edition, running Dec. 5-12, 2026. Regional Diplomacy: US and Iran technical talks are set in Switzerland under a framework involving Pakistan and Qatar, as Hormuz tensions and Lebanon ceasefire violations continue to shape the wider picture.

US-Iran MoU and frozen funds: The US and Qatar are working to make billions of Iran’s frozen assets available for humanitarian spending, with an initial $6bn pool tied to food and medicine purchases, while the framework still awaits Iran’s buy-in and could set a precedent for releasing more funds. Regional security and militias: Reuters reports Iran’s IRGC has created small, tightly controlled secret cells in Iraq to launch drone attacks on Gulf states, operating outside established militia chains to reduce detection. Iraq governance: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi is pushing to confine weapons to the state and curb institutional corruption, with parliament authorizing the government to proceed, as US support continues. Financial integrity: Iraq has agreed to cooperate with the FATF to address anti-money laundering and terrorism-financing gaps, following a review process and a push for faster implementation of an action plan. Defense funding pressure: The Pentagon is seeking about $80bn more to cover Iran-war costs and other bills, warning shortfalls could hit as soon as this summer. Kurdistan finances: KRG PM Masrour Barzani says Baghdad must send the region its budget entitlements, including salary funds. Sports and society: Diyala’s biggest tennis complex rose from a former landfill in Baqubah, training players across age groups.

FATF Grey List: Iraq has been returned to the Financial Action Task Force’s “grey list” after eight years off it, with FATF citing gaps in anti-money laundering and counter-terror financing—prompting renewed pressure on Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi’s reform agenda. US-Iran MoU & Hormuz: The US and Iran’s memorandum of understanding is being framed as a shift away from “endless wars,” while Iran’s Strait of Hormuz authority says transit fees will be waived for 60 days and the US lifts port blockade steps—moves that are already easing shipping and oil flows. Iraq-US security diplomacy: Iraq’s Prime Minister al-Zaidi is set for a mid-July Washington visit focused on energy and economic ties, while the “militia file” remains unresolved as US officials push for state control over weapons. Kirkuk heritage: Kirkuk’s “Seven Girls” legend endures at the citadel’s Gate of the Seven Girls, though historians warn there’s no conclusive proof it happened as told. Military leadership controversy: A US report alleges Pentagon vetting blocked dozens of senior promotions under Pete Hegseth, raising concerns about diversity and secret screening. Environment: Iraq’s agriculture ministry says it will soon publish results of a first national desertification assessment covering districts in Dhi Qar, Wasit, and Nineveh before expanding nationwide.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Talks on implementing the 14-point US-Iran ceasefire in Switzerland were postponed after US Vice President JD Vance did not travel, leaving the next steps uncertain as the 60-day negotiation window begins. Regional Security: Reuters reports Iran’s IRGC has created secret Iraqi cells to launch drone attacks on Gulf states hosting US forces, operating outside established militia chains. Sanctions & Lebanon: The US Treasury expanded sanctions on Hezbollah-linked Lebanese officials and a business network, naming figures accused of undermining Lebanon’s peace process and delaying disarmament. Energy & Iraq’s Stakes: Oil prices fell as tanker traffic resumed through the Strait of Hormuz after the interim deal, but traders warned normalization is not yet proven—an issue that matters for Iraq’s export flows and regional stability. Iraq Business: Uzbekistan and Iraq launched a joint business council in Tashkent, targeting cooperation in food, electrical engineering, and construction through a signed memorandum.

Iraqi Security Leadership: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi appointed Basim al-Badri as head of the Iraqi National Security Service, replacing Abdul Karim al-Basri, with Badri previously leading the Accountability and Justice Commission. Kurdistan–Baghdad Trade Talks: Erbil and Baghdad reached a technical draft agreement to implement the ASYCUDA digital customs system at Kurdistan border crossings, with remaining issues to be voted on by the federal ministerial council for economic affairs. Regional Security Pressure: Israel’s Netanyahu said Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until its security goals are met, as its forces maintain a security zone up to about 10 km inside Lebanese territory. US Sanctions Spillover: The US Treasury announced new sanctions targeting Lebanese officials and business network figures it says support Hezbollah, including designations of individuals in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Oman tied to funding and front companies. Energy and Shipping: The US lifted its naval blockade enforcement on Iranian ports after the US-Iran interim ceasefire steps, while uncertainty remains around follow-up talks in Switzerland. World Cup Politics Touchpoint: Norway beat Iraq 4-1 in the Group I opener, with Erling Haaland scoring twice and Iraqi forward Aymen Hussein netting a World Cup goal.

Energy Security & Power: Iraq says it is pushing a strategic floating LNG terminal at Khor Al-Zubair with U.S. firms to import gas, convert it into power-plant fuel, and stabilize electricity during peak demand. Oil-Route Politics: With the U.S.-Iran Hormuz reopening underway, analysts warn flows may only recover to about 70% of prewar levels, keeping regional energy planning and sanctions risk front and center. State Capacity & U.S. Pressure: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is set to seek U.S. help in mid-July, but Washington’s envoy Tom Barrack is pressing Baghdad to disarm armed factions and cut their economic lifelines before aid moves. Security & Governance: Iraq’s armed-faction integration and state-control pledges remain under scrutiny as officials try to balance militia pressure with government authority. World Cup Spotlight (Iraq): Iraq’s World Cup return continues to draw attention after its matches against Norway, while FIFA attendance records and star performances dominate the wider headlines.

Iraq-US Ties: US envoy Tom Barrack met Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi in Baghdad to push a new direction in bilateral relations, with both sides stressing Iraq’s plan to disarm armed groups and bring weapons under state control ahead of Zaidi’s expected July visit to Washington. Regional Security & Iran Deal: As the US-Iran MoU nears signing, Washington says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and sanctions relief will follow, while Trump also warned the military option remains on the table and said US forces will stay in the Gulf “for a while.” Shia Political Theater: Iran says the funeral procession for late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will pass through Iraq on July 8 before burial in Mashhad on July 9, with Iraqi authorities yet to comment. World Cup Spotlight (Iraq): Iraq’s Aymen Hussein, detained by US customs two weeks earlier, scored in his World Cup debut but Norway beat Iraq 4-1, while the tournament’s star power surged with Messi’s hat trick for Argentina and Mbappé’s brace for France. Energy Outlook: The IEA warned Gulf oil recovery will be slow even as Hormuz reopening approaches, citing demining and unresolved transit arrangements.

World Cup 2026 — Iraq’s Return: Norway kicked off its Group I campaign with a 4-1 win over Iraq at Boston Stadium, with Erling Haaland scoring twice and Aymen Hussein replying for Iraq; the match briefly reignited national pride after a 40-year absence. World Cup 2026 — France Opens Strong: Kylian Mbappé powered France to a 3-1 victory over Senegal, scoring twice and moving past Pelé on the all-time World Cup goals list. World Cup 2026 — Messi Makes History: Lionel Messi delivered a hat trick as Argentina beat Algeria 3-0, tying Miroslav Klose’s career World Cup scoring record and underlining his title-defense momentum. US-Iran Deal’s Middle East Ripple: Reports say the US-Iran framework includes major financial incentives and could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with knock-on effects for regional travel and shipping. Iraq in the Iran Conflict Narrative: A CNN report claims Israeli special forces operated in Azerbaijan, UAE, Iraq and Somaliland during the Iran conflict, a claim Azerbaijan denies. Veterans Policy Fight (US): A proposed VA home-loan fee hike would nearly triple upfront costs for some veterans, drawing criticism as a “tax on military benefits.”

US-Iraq Security: US envoy Tom Barrack met Iraqi PM Ali Al-Zaidi in Baghdad, urging “complete disarmament and disbandment” of militia groups outside state control as part of a shared vision for a terrorism-free Iraq. Diplomatic Push: Barrack also signaled Washington’s support for Al-Zaidi ahead of a planned trip to Washington in July, as Iraq seeks to tighten state authority amid militia and Iran-linked tensions. Energy Diplomacy: Iraq has asked Türkiye for a one-year extension of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan oil pipeline deal, citing the July 27 expiry while talks continue on a broader renewal. World Cup, Politics in the Background: Iraqi fans are in Boston for Iraq’s World Cup return after 40 years, with the Norway opener at Boston Stadium drawing major attention even as transport and security planning remains a live issue. Regional Intelligence Claims: A CNN report says Israel deployed special forces and Mossad-linked units in Azerbaijan, UAE, Iraq and Somaliland during the Iran conflict, which host authorities deny.