AGP Executive Report

Iraq-Jordan Security Ties: Jordan’s PM Jaafar Hassan told Iraqi Parliament Speaker Halbousi that Iraq’s security is a “fundamental pillar” for regional stability, warning Amman is increasingly concerned about non-state armed groups operating from Iraqi territory and the spillover risks to border and airspace security. Kurdistan Funding Dispute: Iraq’s deputy speaker Adnan Faihan urged Baghdad to halt transfers to the Kurdistan Regional Government until a full settlement on outstanding non-oil revenues is reached, citing budget-law obligations and alleged shortfalls in KRG payments. Regional Airspace Reopens: After Iran’s missile strikes and the resulting closures, Iraq lifted its 72-hour national airspace ban and resumed flights, while Syria and Iran also restored aviation operations as safety coordination improved. US-Iran Maritime Pressure: The US disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman for attempting to sail toward an Iranian port, firing a precision munition and citing the ongoing blockade. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ agreed to raise July production by 188,000 bpd, but analysts warned the real market impact may be limited while Hormuz disruptions constrain shipments. World Cup, Iraq in Focus: FIFA World Cup coverage highlights Iraq’s qualification and preparations, while separate reports note Iraqi players and staff facing US entry scrutiny ahead of matches. Bus Crash in Southern Iraq: A deadly bus accident near Nasiriyah killed at least 21 and injured 19, drawing regional condolences.

Iraq’s Security Diplomacy: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s Speaker Halbousi that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, warning Amman is increasingly worried about drones and non-state armed activity spilling across borders and airspace. Militia Pressure on US Bases: Kataib Hezbollah warned it could attack US bases if Washington joins Israeli strikes, while other Iraqi factions signal willingness to fold weapons under state control—though Tehran-aligned groups resist. State Control of Weapons: Iraq’s push to centralize arms is gaining momentum under US pressure, with Baghdad moving to limit Popular Mobilization influence and integrate some brigades into state institutions. Regional Airspace Closures: As Iran-Israel exchanges intensify, Iraq shut national airspace for 72 hours and Kirkuk flights were suspended; Syria and other neighbors also closed corridors. Iran Targets Kurdish Groups in Iraq: Iran’s IRGC said it struck “terrorist groups” in Iraqi Kurdistan, underscoring how Iraq’s territory remains a battleground in the wider Iran-Israel war. Oil and Trade Fallout: OPEC+ agreed to raise output ceilings again, but analysts say Strait of Hormuz disruption limits real supply gains; meanwhile Iraq’s imports fell sharply in 2025 amid stricter financial controls and oil-price pressure. World Cup Friction: Iraq’s top scorer Aymen Hussein was detained and questioned for hours at Chicago’s O’Hare as the team’s photographer was denied entry, adding to scrutiny of US visa handling for tournament visitors.

Parliament & Courts: Iraq’s judiciary moved to strip MP Hasanain Al-Khafaji’s immunity in a $500,000 extortion case tied to a Baghdad real-estate project, with the request coming from the Baghdad/Karkh Court of Appeals. Security & Governance: Baghdad also faces wider pressure to rein in armed influence as officials push state control over weapons and disarmament steps. Economy & Money Policy: The Central Bank of Iraq denied “printing money,” saying it used treasury bill discounts to cover expenditures after oil revenue collapse linked to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Oil & Investment: Iraq’s new oil minister pledged better terms for foreign investment and aims to expand production and cut gas flaring, while OPEC+ agreed another July output increase despite the Hormuz closure. Military & Defense Narrative: Iraq’s Air Force rejected criticism of its F-16 capability, citing 20,000+ sorties since 2014. Public Safety: A bus rollover on the Nasiriyah–Basra road in Dhi Qar killed at least 21, including Iranian pilgrims. Sports & Borders: Iraqi World Cup striker Aymen Hussein was questioned for hours at Chicago’s O’Hare, and the team’s photographer Talal Salah was denied entry.

Iraq’s World Cup Return Meets US Scrutiny: Iraq striker Aymen Hussein was reportedly held and questioned for nearly seven hours at Chicago’s O’Hare after arriving with the squad, with his phone inspected; Iraqi sources also say team photographer Talal Salah was detained for more than 10 hours and ultimately denied entry. Anti-Corruption Drive Under New PM: Analysts say Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi’s push to curb corruption faces a steep test as Washington ties cooperation to reforms and militia disarmament, after the arrest of Deputy Oil Minister Adnan Al Jumaili over alleged bribery. Economic Diversification Plan: Iraq’s government is advancing “Iraq 2035,” aiming to lift non-oil revenues to 46% of total income and expand the private sector’s GDP share, amid IMF warnings about instability’s impact on budgets and inflation. Kurdish Cultural Spotlight: Erbil’s first major Kurdish book fair sold over 37,000 books in four days, drawing thousands of visitors and publishers from Europe. Regional Security Shockwaves: Coverage highlights how the US-Iran conflict and Gulf attacks have disrupted shipping and raised pressure for states to rethink security partnerships as Hormuz risks remain a major concern.

Kurdistan-Baghdad Financial Talks: A KRG delegation led by Omed Sabah is set to visit Baghdad within 48 hours to discuss Erbil’s customs and trade disputes, including ASYCUDA implementation and the dollar embargo on Kurdish businessmen—while Baghdad is also expected to send its own team to Erbil. World Cup Entry Scrutiny: Iraq’s striker Aymen Hussein was detained and questioned for nearly seven hours at Chicago O’Hare before being allowed in; the team’s photographer Talal Salah was held over 10 hours and denied entry, with phones searched amid heightened US-Iran tensions. Oil Transit Denial: Baghdad rejected claims it paid Iran for oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, saying exports continue under legal routes and warning against unverified market rumors. Regional Security & Media Clash: Gulf and Saudi-linked outlets frame the US-Iran crisis around energy and shipping risks, while Israeli and Iran-aligned media emphasize escalation and leverage—highlighting how the same conflict is being sold in sharply different political narratives. Safety Crackdown: Iraq’s civil defense says it closed about 11,000 buildings over the past year for fire and safety violations, with Anbar among the hardest hit.

Iraq’s Solar Pivot: With blackouts and generator costs rising, Iraqis are increasingly looking at home solar as grid power can be as low as 8–12 hours a day, especially after Iran cut gas supplies. World Cup Focus: Iraq’s return to the FIFA World Cup after 1986 is highlighted in Group I previews alongside France, Senegal and Norway, with Iraq training in West Virginia ahead of matches in Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto. Iran-US Money Standoff: Iran’s Khamenei adviser says a potential deal depends on the Trump administration releasing $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, warning talks are at a deadlock. Sanctions Pressure on Fuel Trade: OFAC sanctioned a network smuggling Iranian LPG disguised as Omani fuel, using UAE/China front firms and shadow fleet tactics to evade US sanctions. Kurdistan-Turkey Talks: Kurdistan Region President Barzani met Turkey’s ambassador to stress Erbil-Baghdad dialogue, security stability, and regional de-escalation. Regional Security Claims: Reports say Israel deployed special military and intelligence units in Azerbaijan during the Iran war, with alleged links to covert hubs also including Iraq.

PMF Reorganization: Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces chief Faleh al-Fayyadh says a new committee has started work to achieve “complete disengagement” of the PMF from political factions, as Iraq moves to place weapons under state control. Fuel Crisis Oversight: Iraq’s Integrity Commission launched surprise field teams in Baghdad to monitor gasoline distribution, check depot deliveries against sales, and curb smuggling amid shortages. Regional Security & Travel: The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem issued a security alert, keeping Iraq at Level 4 travel advisory due to “high tensions,” while warning Americans to know bomb-shelter locations. Iran-US Asset Standoff: Iran’s adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei says talks are deadlocked unless Washington releases $24 billion in frozen assets, warning of a “dark corridor” if fighting resumes. Nuclear Safety Alarm: Qatar condemned the reported drone attack on the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant, calling it a violation of international law and nuclear safety principles. World Bank Roads Deal: The World Bank approved a $900m package to upgrade Iraq and Kurdistan Region road corridors linking Baghdad to Turkey and Syria/Jordan. Diplomatic/Arms Control Debate: A Baghdad preacher backed restricting weapons to the state, echoing government steps to integrate armed groups into official structures.

Iraq’s Arms-Under-State Push: Iraq’s government is moving to centralize control of weapons under state authority, with coordination frameworks and committees aimed at integrating armed groups and managing disarmament—though hardliners warn the process could stall. Kurdistan–Baghdad Oil Talks: Erbil and Baghdad are pressing ahead on oil export arrangements and broader coordination, including efforts to keep production moving through regional routes. Regional Security Fallout: The wider Iran–US confrontation keeps tightening the screws across the Gulf, with shipping and energy disruptions feeding into regional instability that Iraq cannot ignore. Oil and Trade Pressure: Iran’s crude exports reportedly hit a six-year low amid blockade and Strait of Hormuz risks, underscoring how quickly regional conflict reshapes energy flows. World Cup Spotlight on Iraq: Iraq’s World Cup build-up continues after a notable Spain draw in a warm-up, keeping attention on Iraq’s return to the tournament after decades. Diplomacy and Legal Cases: A renewed look at Iraq travel-ban issues follows the continued restrictions on Robert Pether after his release.

Kurdistan–Turkey Diplomacy: KRG President Nechirvan Barzani and Prime Minister Masrour Barzani met Turkey’s Ambassador Anıl Bora İnan, stressing stronger Erbil–Ankara ties, dialogue to ease internal disputes, and continued oil exports via Turkey’s Ceyhan port. Federal–Erbil Relations: Barzani said Baghdad wants to “turn a new page,” with talks focused on constitutional rights, financial entitlements, and boosting production to cushion Iraq’s economic strain. Arms Control Politics: Iraq’s drive to centralize weapons under state authority is gaining momentum as some Iran-linked factions move toward state control, but hardliners warn they won’t disarm unless foreign troops leave—raising uncertainty for Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s plan. Security & Travel Fallout: A U.S. embassy alert urged Americans across the region to stay cautious as tensions with Iran persist, while Bahrain ordered travel agencies to halt promotions to Iran and Iraq. Infrastructure Push: Iraq is set to begin implementing the $17bn Development Road project, aiming to connect Basra to Turkey and position Iraq as a transit hub.

Arms Control Showdown in Baghdad: Iraqi factions are signaling they may resist the government’s push to place weapons under state control, even as PM Ali al-Zaidi moves to restructure the Popular Mobilization Forces and form a joint committee with pro-Iran groups to implement disarmament steps. U.S. Diplomatic Backing: U.S. envoy Tom Barrack publicly praised Iraq’s efforts to integrate armed groups into state institutions and return weapons to the government. Security Reality Check: Observers in Baghdad warn the shift may be more about recalibrating militia power than ending parallel security structures. Regional Pressure and Fallout: The broader Iran-U.S. conflict continues to spill into Iraq’s neighborhood, with reports of missile and drone activity affecting Gulf states and raising stakes for Baghdad’s internal security agenda. Local Governance Angle: The debate over state control of arms is now tied directly to appointments and institutional authority inside Iraq’s security system.

Militia Disarmament Push: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi moves to tighten state control over weapons, forming a joint committee to set procedures for disengaging from the PMF and consolidating arms under government authority within two days, as Iran-backed factions signal they may sever PMF ties. State Arms Conditions: Saraya Awliya al-Dam says it will not disarm unless Baghdad guarantees full sovereignty, ends foreign military presence, and cuts financial/economic dependence—adding demands for air-defense upgrades. Kurdistan Oil Restart: Baghdad orders oil companies in Iraqi Kurdistan to resume operations from Thursday after drone-linked disruptions, aiming to offset Hormuz-linked revenue losses. Ceyhan Export Expansion: The cabinet approves plans to more than triple crude exports via the Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan, from about 220,000 bpd to up to 770,000 bpd in two and a half months. Korek Telecom Legal Fight: Iraq’s CMC cancels Korek Telecom’s contract and suspends operations; the company’s CEO calls the decision “unlawful” and vows legal action. Diplomatic Fallout: Kuwait declares two Iranian diplomats persona non grata and cuts embassy staff after missile/drone attacks, while Iran warns of retaliation. Regional War Diplomacy: A senior Iranian lawmaker says any US deal must include an end to regional war, especially Lebanon.

Militia Integration in Iraq: Muqtada al-Sadr keeps reshaping his armed wing—freezing Peace Brigades activity in Basra and Wasit earlier this year, then reversing course—while new reporting frames the latest “dismantling” as a political recalibration rather than a true break. Arms Under State Control: Multiple pro-Iran Iraqi factions say they will hand weapons to authorities, but the process remains contested as Baghdad pushes for tighter state control. Regional Security Shock: Iran-linked missile and drone attacks across the Gulf have spilled into Iraq’s neighborhood, with reports of Iranian strikes hitting a Kurdish separatist base near Erbil. US-Iran Escalation Near Iraq: US CENTCOM says it carried out “self-defense” strikes after Iranian attacks, including action near Qeshm Island, as Kuwait and Bahrain faced missile alerts and oil prices jumped. Fatal Training Incident in Kurdistan: A joint US-British training accident at Erbil Airbase killed both soldiers, underscoring how quickly regional tensions can intersect with Iraq’s security cooperation. Anti-Corruption in Baghdad: Iraq seized $10m in cash and dozens of properties tied to corruption allegations involving the Oil Ministry.

Militia Disarmament Push: Two Iran-backed Iraqi militias, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the Imam Ali Brigades, announced they will begin handing weapons to the state and leaving the PMF, echoing Muqtada al-Sadr’s earlier move and aligning with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s push for a state monopoly on arms. Anti-Corruption Drive: Iraq’s Federal Integrity Commission says it uncovered nearly 2 billion dinars in embezzlement in Diyala’s electricity directorate, dismissing four senior officials. US-Iran-Iraq Maritime Tensions: Iran’s IRGC claimed it hit a ship linked to the US/Israel near Iraq’s Umm Qasr, while Iraqi investigators questioned whether it was a deliberate strike, after UKMTO reported a major explosion. Regional Security Measures: Bahrain banned citizens from traveling to Iran and Iraq amid ongoing regional tensions. Diplomacy Under Strain: Trump said US-Iran talks are continuing “at a rapid pace” despite reports of pauses tied to Lebanon, as Israel-Hezbollah fighting continues. Christian Leadership: A new Chaldean Catholic patriarch installed in Baghdad pledged to strengthen Iraq’s Christian community. Training Fatalities: US and British authorities confirmed two soldiers died during a training exercise at Erbil air base.

Armed Groups & State Authority: Iraq’s Coordination Framework backed a push to restrict weapons to the state and cut the PMF’s ties to political and social frameworks, as Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government presses for tighter control of armed actors. Border & Trade: Iran’s Jilat border crossing with Iraq’s Maysan province has entered an operational phase, with infrastructure work underway and partial opening possible during Arbaeen, aiming to boost trade and pilgrim movement. Security & Military Deaths: One U.S. soldier and one British service member died in a training accident at Erbil Air Base; investigations are ongoing and identities are being withheld pending next-of-kin notification. Regional War Fallout: Satellite-based reporting says Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed dozens of U.S. assets across multiple countries including Iraq, while U.S.-Iran talks remain fragile amid Lebanon-linked escalation. Local Economy & Cash Use: Exchange and money-transfer offices continue expanding as most of Iraq’s money supply stays outside banks, highlighting persistent cash reliance despite rising financial inclusion. World Cup Spotlight: Iraq’s World Cup return after 40 years keeps momentum, with Ali Al Hamadi highlighted as a key figure in qualification.

Iraq’s Militia Integration: Muqtada al-Sadr announced the dissolution of Saraya al-Salam and ordered its full attachment to the Iraqi state, with a handover process aimed to be completed by Eid al-Ghadir (June 4), as Baghdad weighs how to integrate armed factions under government authority. Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s prime minister moved to form an anti-corruption council after revealing he was offered a $200 million bribe, while lawmakers and officials debate whether the new body is legal and how it will refer cases to court. Regional Security Shockwaves: Iran says it has halted indirect talks with the U.S. over Israel’s Lebanon offensive, warning ceasefire violations could open “new fronts,” while U.S. strikes on Iranian radar/drone sites and missile/drone exchanges involving Kuwait and incidents near Iraq’s Umm Qasr keep regional tensions high. Trade and Infrastructure: TMG secured an investment licence for a major $18.8bn Baghdad mixed-use community with tens of thousands of homes, and a cargo incident in the Gulf near Iraq’s coast highlights how shipping routes remain exposed amid the Iran-Israel-U.S. standoff. UK-Iraq Security Presence: The UK confirmed a British Army soldier died in a northern Iraq training accident, underscoring ongoing coalition training and advisory operations.

Armed Factions vs. State Control: Iraq’s PM Ali Al-Zaidi received a US message warning that armed factions should not take part in the next government even if they surrender weapons, raising fresh friction inside cabinet-formation talks. Shiite Disarmament Pressure: Political analyst Rafid Al-Atwani says Muqtada al-Sadr dissolved ties with Saraya Al-Salam to ease international pressure, with discussion of eventually integrating remaining members into state security structures. Anti-Corruption Clash: A new Iraqi anti-corruption council was branded “illegal” by an MP, who argues it violates constitutional rules for independent oversight bodies and blurs roles by placing the PM at the top. US Veto on Cabinet Seats: Another report says Washington is effectively blocking armed figures from ministerial or senior posts, creating a “new US veto” dynamic. Public Health Measures: Wasit Governor Ali Salimoun ordered border closures to livestock unless veterinary requirements are met to curb CCHF spread. Legal Probe of Online Giveaways: A Nineveh content creator was arrested over alleged financing behind social media prizes. Fuel Quality Complaints: Mechanics across Iraq link poor gasoline quality to rising vehicle malfunctions and repair costs.