AGP Executive Report

Kurdistan Drone Crisis: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi and officials are pushing back hard after drones hit the office of KRG PM Masrour Barzani, warning of “false-flag ploys” meant to sow discord with Iraq; Baghdad has ordered an investigation and multiple regional governments have condemned the attack as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Regional Diplomacy: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is set to visit Baghdad amid Hormuz and security talks, with reports saying safe transit for Iraqi oil and the weapons-to-state-only push are on the agenda. Armed Groups & Disarmament: Badr Organization chief Hadi al-Amiri urged moderation as Baghdad presses for state control of weapons, while Harakat al-Nujaba’s intelligence chief was reportedly released after detention and the PMF/Baghdad weapons file remains a flashpoint. Security Incident: A bombing at the Jurf al-Sakhr base in southern Iraq killed at least two fighters from Kataeb Hezbollah, according to pro-Iran group sources. Economy & Payments: Farmers protested in Baghdad demanding overdue wheat dues, as the government had pledged payment through budget measures. Energy Routes: Lebanon and Iraq discussed reviving the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline to diversify exports away from Hormuz, while DP World marked progress upgrading Syria’s Port of Tartous.

Weapons Under State Control: Iraq’s four top authorities renewed their push to place all weapons under state control, linking it to strengthening armed forces and rule of law as the Global Coalition’s withdrawal nears. Kurdistan Drone Crisis: Iran-linked drones hit Prime Minister Masrour Barzani’s office and the residence of the KRG security chief in Erbil, with no casualties reported; Baghdad demanded Tehran’s official explanation, while the US, EU, and UK condemned the attack and Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi ordered an investigation. Faction Conditions: Kataib Hezbollah set three conditions for any weapons talks, demanding full US withdrawal, Turkish withdrawal from northern Iraq, and dissolution of the Peshmerga—while warning patience is running out. Parliamentary Power Struggle: Iraqi lawmakers asked to freeze provincial councils and budgets, reviving a decentralization dispute as legal and political complications loom. Iraq-Iran Banking Talks: Iran’s central bank chief met Iraqi counterparts in Baghdad to ease banking restrictions and speed access to funds, aiming to remove hurdles for trade and investment. Regional Energy Route: Lebanese officials met an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline as Baghdad seeks alternative export corridors beyond Hormuz.

Kurdistan Security Under Strain: Iranian drones targeted KRG PM Masrour Barzani’s office and the residence of the security intelligence chief in Erbil; no casualties were reported, and Barzani called it “reckless and unacceptable,” while KDP urged Baghdad to respond decisively. Iraq’s Economy Meets Hormuz Reality: Iraq’s Finance Minister said the Strait of Hormuz disruption is hitting the economy and pushed reforms including a first performance-based budget and higher non-oil revenue, in talks with the British ambassador. US-Iran MoU Deadlock: The 60-day Iran-US memorandum period ends with no deal, as both sides trade blame over the naval blockade and Hormuz shipping; Iran says it will act in line with national interests and keeps forces ready. Oil-Route Diversification Push: Iraq and Lebanon discussed reviving the Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline as a Mediterranean export alternative, including upgrades to crossings, roads, and storage safety standards. Tourism Drive: Iraq unveiled a plan to lift tourism to 10% of GDP by 2035, aiming for 10 million tourists annually, 1.5 million jobs, and major heritage site rehabilitation.

Air Defense Upgrade: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi chaired an Air Defense Command meeting in Erbil to expand capabilities and speed contracts for advanced systems, as recent strikes have underscored spillover risks from the Iran conflict. Anti-Corruption & Finance Reform: Baghdad says it is preparing Iraq’s first program-and-performance budget, aiming to tie spending to measurable results while coping with economic pressure from Hormuz disruptions. Oil Transit Through Turkey: Iraq’s state marketer SOMO says the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline transit tariff is $1.62 per barrel under a one-year extension, keeping exports flowing after the long-term deal expired. Kurdistan Electricity Relief: The KRG’s Runaki legacy-debt discount has helped over 170,000 beneficiaries clear arrears, with waivers running until Sept. 10. US-Iran Tensions With Iraqi Links: Reports claim the Trump administration used KRG President Nechirvan Barzani as a secret backchannel to the IRGC to clarify Tehran’s negotiating position. Kurdistan Politics: President Masoud Barzani marked the KDP’s 80th anniversary, stressing coexistence among Kurdistan’s components. Regional Energy Route Talks: Lebanese officials met an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline as an alternative export corridor to the Mediterranean.

Anti-Corruption Sweep: Iraq’s judiciary says it seized about $26m in cash and 60kg of gold in the Adnan Al-Jumaili case, including seven vehicles, as investigations into alleged waste in refinery projects continue. Oil & Exports: Iraq reports daily oil exports hitting around 2 million barrels in August, its highest since the Iran war began, as Baghdad leans on alternative routes and export outlets. Energy Shortfall Response: Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi orders Iraq to boost electricity imports from neighbors, directing the Ministry of Electricity to secure at least 10,000MW while expanding local generation and grid capacity. Civil Safety Crackdown: Iraqi civil defense says it has closed 900 non-compliant commercial buildings since the start of 2026 for failing fire and safety standards, with enforcement tied to legal authority limits. Regional Security Pressure: CENTCOM says Adm. Brad Cooper completed a 10-day Middle East tour, including visits to Iraq and the USS Abraham Lincoln, amid ongoing Iran-Hormuz tensions. Hormuz Standoff: Iran rejects Trump’s claim it will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory, insisting the waterway “will remain Iranian,” while shipping risks keep rising. Diplomacy on Exports: Lebanon and an Iraqi delegation meet in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline as Baghdad seeks more Mediterranean export options.

Iraq–Kurdistan Security Coordination: Iraq’s national security adviser Qasim Al-Aboudi met KDP leader Masoud Barzani in Erbil to push continued Baghdad–KRG coordination on border security, smuggling prevention, and implementation follow-ups tied to the Iraq–Iran security agreement. Weapons Under State Control: Iraq’s interior ministry says more than 600 tribal sheikhs cooperated in registering tribal weapons, as Baghdad presses to keep arms under state authority; the government has registered about six million firearms since July. Electricity Push: PM Ali al-Zaidi told the electricity ministry to keep domestic capacity at 30,000 MW and expand imports and renewables, aiming to “double” electricity production and distribution capacity in 2027. Oil Transit Plan: Lebanese officials met an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline as Baghdad seeks alternative export routes to the Mediterranean and less reliance on Hormuz. Regional Fallout From Hormuz Tensions: UAE blamed Iran for an ADNOC-linked attack in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran rejected US claims over the waterway and said it will remain Iranian; the wider disruption keeps pressure on Gulf oil revenues.

Iraq Security & Counterterror: Iraqi forces carried out targeted operations in Diyala and Anbar, arresting three terrorists and seizing an ammunition cache as Baghdad presses its campaign against ISIS remnants. Weapons & State Control Debate: Badr Organization rejected any government move to use force to disarm armed factions, warning it could spark internal strife and arguing the push is tied to U.S. pressure. Judicial Cooperation on ISIS Detainees: Iraq and Syria agreed to form joint judicial committees to review ISIS detainee cases transferred to Iraq, with regular meetings planned between expert teams. Anti-Drug Drive: Iraq dismantled an international drug smuggling network in territorial waters, seizing 90 kg of hashish and arresting three suspects, including a foreign national. Economy & Revenue: Iraq’s General Customs Authority collected 2.5 trillion IQD in customs revenues in the first seven months of 2026, matching 2025’s full-year total, driven by automation and anti-corruption measures. Regional Shock: A magnitude 3.9 earthquake hit Sulaimaniyah, followed by aftershocks, according to Iraq’s transport and meteorological authorities.

Iraq Anti-Corruption & Security Push: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is prioritizing a border port anti-corruption drive and stepping up pressure on armed groups as the Sept. 30 U.S. withdrawal deadline nears, with reports saying Baghdad is studying possible action against Kataib Hezbollah strongholds if militias don’t disarm. Oil Exports Under Pressure: Iraq’s oil exports have rebounded to about 2 million bpd in August after the Strait of Hormuz disruption, while Baghdad continues talks to secure alternative routes and reduce reliance on the chokepoint. Diplomacy for New Export Corridors: Lebanon and an Iraqi delegation met in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline, aiming to turn Lebanon into a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products. Regional Military Tensions: The U.S.-Iran standoff over Hormuz remains tense as Trump escalates rhetoric about declaring the strait “US territory,” while CENTCOM moves to build a multinational suicide-drone task force. US Drone Losses Raise Alarm: Reports say the U.S. lost roughly 25% of its MQ-9 Reaper fleet in the Iran war, costing over $1.3bn, underscoring how hard it is to sustain air operations in the region. Local Governance & Oversight: Iraq also continues weapons-control and militia-related measures, including efforts to track large numbers of weapons and close fake PMF-linked offices.

Security & Sovereignty: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi’s first 100 days are being framed as a “new phase” of security stability, with renewed emphasis on the state’s monopoly on weapons and tighter control over Iran-backed militia activity. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: Federal Integrity Commission forces arrested Electricity Ministry undersecretary Khalid Ghazai Attiya, as Baghdad pushes corruption cases into senior ranks. Kurdistan Drone Threat: Three bomb-laden drones were shot down over Erbil with no casualties, underscoring how the Kurdistan Region remains a key target amid US-Iran tensions. Regional Energy Routes: Lebanon and an Iraqi delegation in Beirut discussed reviving the Kirkuk-Tripoli oil pipeline as Baghdad seeks alternative export corridors to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz Pressure on Iraq: The UAE blamed Iran for attacks on ADNOC-linked vessels in the Strait, while reports say the US has lost about 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones in the Iran war—highlighting how the wider conflict is driving risk and costs across Iraq’s security and energy lifelines. Saudi-Iraqi Defense Ties: Saudi Arabia’s defense minister met Iraq’s top military leadership to stress continued coordination and regional stability.

Iraq’s Disarmament Deadline Looms: Baghdad is weighing a forceful plan to restrict Iran-backed militia movement and supplies if they don’t disarm by Sept. 30, with Iraqi Army and elite units reportedly set to move around militia operation centers. Regional Security Diplomacy: Iraq’s PM Al-Zaidi pressed air-defense readiness ahead of the coalition exit, while Saudi and Iraqi security delegations met to sustain coordination after cross-border drone accusations. Defense Pacts Reshuffle the Region: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, creating political and military mechanisms for coordinated response. Judicial Cooperation: Iraq’s Chief Justice Faiq Zidan met Syria’s President Al-Sharaa in Damascus to expand legal coordination and set up joint committees on ISIS detainees and al-Hol transfers. Anti-Corruption Push: Iraq’s Integrity Commission chief warned there’s no safe haven for looted funds or fugitives as authorities escalate asset recovery and cross-border legal cooperation. Customs Modernization: Baghdad and Erbil agreed to fully adopt the UNCTAD ASYCUDA digital customs system, aiming to standardize border earnings and cut revenue leakage.

US-Iraq Withdrawal: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi reaffirmed Sept. 30 as the “fixed and final” deadline for the end of the US-led coalition mission and the departure of its forces, with Iraq preparing to assume full responsibility for security. Air Defense Readiness: Ahead of that transition, Zaidi ordered a boost to Iraq’s air defense capabilities, directing upgrades and resources to protect Iraqi airspace and sovereignty. Armed Groups & State Control: The withdrawal timeline is tied to Baghdad’s push to move weapons under exclusive state control, as officials warn Iraq will not allow its territory to be used to threaten neighbors. Security Operations in Baghdad: Iraqi Interior Ministry forces seized 20+ locally made drones and arrested four suspects in Baghdad, after earlier efforts to disrupt drone manufacturing. Baghdad Command Reshuffle: Major General Hadi Sarheid al-Kinani was appointed Baghdad Operations Commander, replacing Walid Khalifa. Kurdistan Fuel & Oil Dispute: Erbil says it is entitled to more than twice the crude allocation for local consumption, while Baghdad discusses fuel support if KRG shares its designated crude. Customs Deal: Erbil and Baghdad reached a “final agreement” on implementing the ASYCUDA customs system and settling outstanding customs disputes. Yazidi Heritage & Rebuilding: A Baghdad forum focused on Yazidi history, heritage, and the political will needed for Sinjar and Nineveh reconstruction and return. Regional Energy Route Talks: Lebanese officials met an Iraqi delegation in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline as Iraq seeks alternative export corridors beyond Hormuz. Saudi-Iran Tensions Spillover: An Iraqi security delegation is set to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss drone attacks and security concerns amid heightened Baghdad-Riyadh strain.

U.S.-Iraq Withdrawal Deadline: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi told U.S. CENTCOM chief Gen. Brad Cooper that Sept. 30 is the “fixed and final” date to end the coalition’s Iraq mission, with Oct. 1 marking a new era of full Iraqi sovereignty and state control over weapons. Kurdistan Fuel Crunch: The KRG says it’s ready to negotiate with Baghdad over subsidized fuel, arguing the current 50,000-barrel allocation for domestic use is too low and should be more than doubled. Regional Diplomacy Pressure: U.S. embassies in the Middle East are preparing for prolonged “reduced operations” as the Iran conflict drags on, with staffing and assignments expected to stay lower for now. Armed Groups Disarmament Watch: The backdrop to the withdrawal talks is Iraq’s push to bring militia weapons under state authority, while Iran-linked regional tensions keep raising the stakes for security planning.

Iraq Energy Security: Lebanese officials in Beirut met an Iraqi delegation to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, with Lebanon preparing to act as an initial storage and re-export hub as Baghdad seeks alternative Mediterranean export routes amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. State Control of Arms: Iraq’s PM ordered drafting laws to place all weapons under state control, while security agencies expand firearms registration and crack down on militia-linked networks. Regional Security Pressure on Iraq: Iran carried out missile and drone strikes targeting Kurdish opposition groups in Iraq’s Kurdistan, raising fears of spillover as Tehran–Washington tensions keep northern Iraq on edge. Diplomatic Continuity Under Threat: The U.S. is asking embassies across the Middle East to plan for reduced staffing for an extended period, signaling long-lasting instability affecting Iraq-related diplomacy. EU–Iraq Cultural Outreach: An EU delegation visited the Imam Hussein shrine in Karbala, highlighting religious and cultural ties alongside broader regional engagement. Turkey–PKK Peace Fallout: Turkey’s parliament advanced a PKK peace framework with partial amnesty and reintegration steps, while Kurdish and Turkish political actors trade accusations—developments that directly shape security dynamics near Iraq.

State Arms Monopoly Push: Iraqi PM Ali Al-Zaidi ordered draft legislation to place all weapons under exclusive state control, warning that uncontrolled arms undermine the rule of law as armed groups face an end-September deadline to submit to government authority. Security Coordination: Iraq’s Army Chief of Staff Gen. Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah met Jordan, Syria, and Kurdistan Region officials in Amman to boost border security, information-sharing, and joint readiness, including talks with U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper. Kurdistan Fuel Pressure: Erbil lawmakers petition Baghdad to raise Kurdistan’s crude quota or compensate the region with gasoline-equivalent volumes amid worsening petrol shortages and price spikes. Regional Diplomacy: Baghdad condemned Colombia’s recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights as legally void under international law. Cross-Border Instability in Syria: In Qamishli, two SDF-integrated brigade members were killed in an attack, as integration issues remain unsettled. Kurdistan Civil Life: An international chess tournament opened in Erbil with 62 players competing through Aug. 15.

Kurdistan Compensation Push: Erbil submitted a detailed report to Baghdad on drone and missile damage, seeking compensation for 32 dead and 154 injured after more than 1,000 attacks since the US-Iran war began. Telecom Clash: Korek Telecom condemned Iraq’s communications regulator for suspending its operations, saying the commission lacks legal authority and acted on political motives. Armed-Factions Pressure: Iraq’s security and intelligence probe a suspected targeted drone strike at Taji Camp that allegedly destroyed key 120mm tank ammunition reserves, with losses estimated in the hundreds of millions. Regional Security Fallout: Iran’s Hormuz standoff remains tense as Trump rejects Iran’s compensation demand and counters with reparations claims, while oil prices stay near recent highs. Turkey’s PKK Legal Framework: Ankara’s parliament passed a law setting a process for PKK disarmament and reintegration, with amnesty tied to verified disarmament. Church in Iraq: The Chaldean Patriarch warned that Christian emigration and youth despair are Iraq’s biggest challenges, even as he sees some hope for state-building and anti-corruption.

Iran-US Hormuz Standoff: Trump escalated the compensation fight, saying the U.S. will demand reparations from Iran while also claiming the U.S. Navy has “100% control” of the Strait, as hopes for reopening Hormuz dim and oil prices climb. Iran Security Shake-Up: Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei appointed hardline IRGC-linked commanders, including Mohsen Rezaei to a top national security role, signaling a tougher posture as talks drag on. Iraq State Control Push: Iraq shut 71 fake PMF offices and moved to expand weapons registration and oversight, while PMF denied links to the closed sites—another step in Baghdad’s effort to rein in armed groups. Regional Pressure on Militias: With militia disarmament deadlines looming, Iraq warned factions they face anti-terror measures if they don’t comply, as security alerts rise. Turkey PKK Peace Law: Turkey’s parliament approved a conditional pardon framework for some PKK members tied to disarmament and reintegration, a major test for the Kurdish peace process that could also affect Iraq-Turkey dynamics.