AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Iran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority says it has fully closed the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping after U.S. airstrikes, warning of major global oil disruption and price spikes. Iraq-US Diplomacy: Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is set to visit Washington in July to push economic cooperation and seek U.S. backing while he tries to rein in Iranian-backed militias. Regional Security Ties: Jordan’s PM Jaafar Hassan told Iraq’s Parliament Speaker that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, with border and airspace threats and armed groups inside Iraq at the center of talks. Kurdistan Deadlock: KDP has begun meetings with Kurdistan parties to break the political deadlock after months of failed quorum and stalled government formation, a dispute that has also fed wider Iraqi political uncertainty. Arms and Law: A British court convicted two men in an illicit arms brokerage case involving shipments meant for conflict zones including Iraq, with sentencing set for July 22. Iraq in World Cup: FIFA confirmed a Gabonese refereeing team for Iraq’s return match versus Norway, as Iraq prepares for its first World Cup appearance in 40 years.

Sovereign Credit Update: S&P Global affirmed Iraq’s B-/B rating and removed the long-term score from negative watch, but kept a negative outlook, warning that Middle East tensions could disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and hit Iraq’s oil-heavy budget. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s parliament speaker that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, stressing concern over armed non-state groups operating from Iraqi territory. Foreign Policy: Iraq’s FM Fuad Hussein spoke with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, focusing on regional de-escalation and the need to prevent cross-border escalation amid US-Iran diplomacy. State Authority & Militias: Iraq’s top leaders reaffirmed state control over all weapons, while a government committee advanced steps to integrate armed groups into state structures. Economy & Investment Signals: World Bank-linked reporting highlighted confidence in national growth resilience despite regional shocks, underscoring how oil dependence keeps Iraq exposed. World Cup, Politics on the Side: FIFA refereeing assignments set for Iraq vs Norway, with the match spotlighting Iraq’s return to the tournament amid wider regional tensions.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Iran announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz on June 11, citing retaliation for U.S. airstrikes and warning of major global oil disruption as shipping halts and insurance costs jump. Iraq’s Security Posture: Iraq’s top leaders reiterated that all weapons must stay under state authority, while a government committee under Joint Operations Command began receiving files and inventory for integrating PMF-linked forces into national institutions. Regional Diplomacy: Jordan’s prime minister told Iraq’s parliament speaker that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s own stability, pressing for tighter control of armed groups operating from Iraqi territory. Foreign Policy Shift Signals: Iraq’s foreign ministry condemned Iranian missile strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, framing them as a threat to regional stability and urging dialogue. US Travel Warning: The U.S. Embassy in Iraq urged Americans to stay vigilant amid regional tensions and possible sudden travel disruptions. Visa Politics at World Cup: Palestinian FA chief Jibril Rajoub remains stuck in Mexico City after being denied a U.S. visa, highlighting how immigration rules are colliding with FIFA’s unity message.

Iraq-Jordan Security Talks: Jordan’s PM Jaafar Hassan told Iraq’s Parliament Speaker Heit al-Halbousi that Iraq’s security is a core pillar of Jordan’s stability, stressing behind-the-scenes focus on border and airspace threats and the challenge of armed groups operating outside state control. US-Iran Nuclear Pivot: The Trump administration is reportedly moving toward a nuclear agreement with Iran even without Israeli approval, with Vice President JD Vance saying US national security interests come first as diplomacy replaces earlier ultimatums. Israel-Iran War Footprint: A CNN report claims Israel deployed special forces and Mossad-linked operations across Azerbaijan, UAE, Iraq and Somaliland during the Iran conflict, allegations Azerbaijan rejects. Kurdish UN Status Push: Kurdish National Congress spokesperson Nilüfer Koç says Kurds face pressure to narrow federal status and are seeking a path to UN recognition amid shifting US approaches to Iraq, Syria and Turkey. World Cup Visa Fallout: FIFA confirmed Ghana midfielder Thomas Partey was denied entry to Canada over a rape case, while Senegalese fans also faced US visa denials—another blow to African teams’ support at the tournament.

Iraq-Jordan Security Ties: Jordan’s PM stressed that Iraq’s security is a “fundamental pillar” for regional stability, warning Amman is increasingly concerned about non-state armed groups operating from Iraqi territory. Kurdistan Milestones: Kurdistan marked the 50th anniversary of the 1970 March 11 agreement granting Kurdish autonomy, while Masrour Barzani inaugurated the region’s largest youth center to expand skills, tech, and entrepreneurship. PMF Integration Push: In Erbil, Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi unveiled plans to integrate Iranian-backed PMF factions into state institutions, a move welcomed by the U.S. as part of disarmament efforts. Regional Diplomacy: President Masoud Barzani met former U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad to review security and political developments affecting Iraq and the wider Middle East. Oil and War Pressure: With the Strait of Hormuz under strain and regional tensions rising, Iraq’s energy sector faces mounting tests as markets react to the Iran conflict and possible deal signals.

US-Iran Nuclear Pivot: Vice President JD Vance says Washington will pursue a nuclear agreement with Iran even without Israeli approval, after months of escalation tied to strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and retaliatory attacks. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Iraq’s foreign ministry condemned renewed attacks on Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, warning the region could slide into wider confrontation and urging dialogue. Baghdad-Damascus Coordination: Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi sent a message to Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa calling for tighter security and economic coordination as Iraq pushes state control over weapons and seeks investment. Kurdistan Under Pressure: Reports say drones hit civilian infrastructure in Qushtapa, with KRG officials citing hundreds of attacks across Kurdistan amid rising US-Iran tensions. Oil & Economy: The World Bank cut Iraq and regional growth expectations, warning energy disruptions and market stress could worsen the outlook. World Cup Politics in the Background: As the 2026 tournament kicks off, visa disputes and entry denials linked to the Iran-US standoff continue to shadow matches involving Iraq and other Arab teams.

Iraq-US-Iran Tensions: Iraq reiterated its call to end regional escalation and stressed dialogue, while the wider crisis keeps tightening around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran strikes. Regional Security: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s parliament speaker that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s own stability, warning about non-state armed activity spilling across borders. State Authority & Arms Control: Iraq’s leadership linked stability to restricting weapons to the state and keeping security decisions under government control. World Cup Politics at the Border: As the 2026 World Cup kicks off, U.S. visa and entry denials are again in the spotlight, including an Iraqi striker held for hours at Chicago’s O’Hare and an Iraqi team photographer turned back—fueling criticism of immigration enforcement during a major international event. Diplomacy vs Pressure: The U.S. signaled it may pursue an Iran nuclear deal without Israeli approval, a shift that could reshape how Iraq and the region navigate the next phase of conflict.

Iraq Arms Under State Control: Baghdad set an end-of-September deadline to disarm Iran-backed armed groups as the US-led anti-ISIS coalition winds down, with Asaib Ahl Al Haq and Kataib Imam Ali handing over weapons and Baghdad pushing factions to keep out of government roles. Kurdistan-Baghdad Talks: Erbil proposed a permanent high-level committee with Baghdad to settle outstanding files, spotlighting border systems like ASYCUDA. PMF Integration Moves: Pro-Iran Kataib al-Imam Ali handed over armory data to the Joint Operations Command as Iraq accelerates restructuring and “abolition of other names and designations.” Regional Security Diplomacy: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s parliament speaker that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, warning about non-state armed activity spilling across borders. Mosul Anniversary: Iraq marked the 12th anniversary of ISIS taking Mosul, with PM Ali al-Zaidi calling the defeat an enduring national epic. Health Alert: Iraq reported 145 hemorrhagic fever cases and nine deaths since May, with Dhi Qar worst hit.

Arms Under State Control: Iraq’s push to confine weapons to the state faces open resistance as Akram al-Kaabi of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba rejects “any understandings” with forces backing Israel and insists on “force and weapons,” highlighting how hardliners could stall disarmament efforts. Regional Security Ties: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s parliament speaker that Iraq’s security is inseparable from Jordan’s, warning that non-state armed groups operating from Iraqi territory remain a core concern. Iraq-UK Banking Reset: A high-level Iraqi banking delegation wrapped a two-day London visit with the Central Bank, private banks, and UK partners to support banking reforms and better integration into the global system. Crime-Fighting Cooperation: Baghdad approved a bill to ratify a security and crime-combating pact with Spain, where Spanish forces train Iraqi counterterror units. Anti-Drugs Crackdown: Iraqi police in Maysan dismantled an international crystal meth network, seizing 1 kg of meth, while separate operations netted thousands of pills in Anbar. Amnesty Moves: Nineveh released former governor Nawfal Al-Aakoub under Iraq’s General Amnesty Law after years tied to corruption and public fund waste cases. US-Iran Escalation Spillover: Trump said Iran shot down a US Apache helicopter and the US “must” respond, adding pressure to a fragile ceasefire that could further destabilize the region Iraq is trying to manage.

Iraq-US Security & Militias: Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi, is preparing a Washington trip to seek Trump administration backing as Baghdad pushes to bring armed factions under state control, amid fears the Iran war could drag Iraq back into wider conflict. Regional Energy Shock: With Strait of Hormuz disruption still hurting supply, the U.S. EIA warns OECD oil stockpiles are sliding toward the lowest levels since 2003, raising the odds of sharper price pressure. Strait of Hormuz Incident: Trump says Iran shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz; CENTCOM says the crew was rescued and the cause is under investigation, adding strain to ceasefire efforts. Border/Arms Governance: Jordan’s PM stressed Iraq’s security is tied to Jordan’s, warning about non-state armed groups operating inside Iraqi territory. World Cup Politics Touching Iraq: Iraq’s striker Aymen Hussein was questioned for hours at Chicago O’Hare before entry, while the tournament’s wider visa friction continues to shape how teams and officials move. Iraq Sports Spotlight: Iraq will face Venezuela in a World Cup warm-up in Chicago as it prepares for its opener against Norway.

Iraq–Jordan Security Ties: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s Speaker Halbousi that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, warning that drones and non-state armed groups operating from Iraqi territory are now central to bilateral talks. Baghdad Anti-Corruption Move: Iraq’s Communications Minister said authorities stopped a transfer of 116 billion Iraqi dinars meant for Dubai, with the case expected to move to the Integrity Commission and courts. Armed Groups & State Control: A podcast interview highlighted the new Iraqi government’s push to bring militias under state control, but warned any roadmap will face heavy vetting by the United States and internal resistance. Regional Airspace & Escalation Fallout: As Iran-Israel tensions flared again, Iraq reopened airspace after a 72-hour closure, while threats from Iran-backed militias to hit US interests in Iraq were reiterated. Public Safety: A southern Iraq bus crash killed at least 21 people and injured 20, with officials citing poor roads and ambulance shortages.

Iraq-Jordan Security Ties: Jordan’s PM Jaafar Hassan told Iraqi Parliament Speaker Halbousi that Iraq’s security is a “fundamental pillar” for regional stability, warning Amman is increasingly concerned about non-state armed groups operating from Iraqi territory and the spillover risks to border and airspace security. Kurdistan Funding Dispute: Iraq’s deputy speaker Adnan Faihan urged Baghdad to halt transfers to the Kurdistan Regional Government until a full settlement on outstanding non-oil revenues is reached, citing budget-law obligations and alleged shortfalls in KRG payments. Regional Airspace Reopens: After Iran’s missile strikes and the resulting closures, Iraq lifted its 72-hour national airspace ban and resumed flights, while Syria and Iran also restored aviation operations as safety coordination improved. US-Iran Maritime Pressure: The US disabled an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman for attempting to sail toward an Iranian port, firing a precision munition and citing the ongoing blockade. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ agreed to raise July production by 188,000 bpd, but analysts warned the real market impact may be limited while Hormuz disruptions constrain shipments. World Cup, Iraq in Focus: FIFA World Cup coverage highlights Iraq’s qualification and preparations, while separate reports note Iraqi players and staff facing US entry scrutiny ahead of matches. Bus Crash in Southern Iraq: A deadly bus accident near Nasiriyah killed at least 21 and injured 19, drawing regional condolences.

Iraq’s Security Diplomacy: Jordan’s PM told Iraq’s Speaker Halbousi that Iraq’s security is a pillar of Jordan’s stability, warning Amman is increasingly worried about drones and non-state armed activity spilling across borders and airspace. Militia Pressure on US Bases: Kataib Hezbollah warned it could attack US bases if Washington joins Israeli strikes, while other Iraqi factions signal willingness to fold weapons under state control—though Tehran-aligned groups resist. State Control of Weapons: Iraq’s push to centralize arms is gaining momentum under US pressure, with Baghdad moving to limit Popular Mobilization influence and integrate some brigades into state institutions. Regional Airspace Closures: As Iran-Israel exchanges intensify, Iraq shut national airspace for 72 hours and Kirkuk flights were suspended; Syria and other neighbors also closed corridors. Iran Targets Kurdish Groups in Iraq: Iran’s IRGC said it struck “terrorist groups” in Iraqi Kurdistan, underscoring how Iraq’s territory remains a battleground in the wider Iran-Israel war. Oil and Trade Fallout: OPEC+ agreed to raise output ceilings again, but analysts say Strait of Hormuz disruption limits real supply gains; meanwhile Iraq’s imports fell sharply in 2025 amid stricter financial controls and oil-price pressure. World Cup Friction: Iraq’s top scorer Aymen Hussein was detained and questioned for hours at Chicago’s O’Hare as the team’s photographer was denied entry, adding to scrutiny of US visa handling for tournament visitors.

Parliament & Courts: Iraq’s judiciary moved to strip MP Hasanain Al-Khafaji’s immunity in a $500,000 extortion case tied to a Baghdad real-estate project, with the request coming from the Baghdad/Karkh Court of Appeals. Security & Governance: Baghdad also faces wider pressure to rein in armed influence as officials push state control over weapons and disarmament steps. Economy & Money Policy: The Central Bank of Iraq denied “printing money,” saying it used treasury bill discounts to cover expenditures after oil revenue collapse linked to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Oil & Investment: Iraq’s new oil minister pledged better terms for foreign investment and aims to expand production and cut gas flaring, while OPEC+ agreed another July output increase despite the Hormuz closure. Military & Defense Narrative: Iraq’s Air Force rejected criticism of its F-16 capability, citing 20,000+ sorties since 2014. Public Safety: A bus rollover on the Nasiriyah–Basra road in Dhi Qar killed at least 21, including Iranian pilgrims. Sports & Borders: Iraqi World Cup striker Aymen Hussein was questioned for hours at Chicago’s O’Hare, and the team’s photographer Talal Salah was denied entry.

Iraq’s World Cup Return Meets US Scrutiny: Iraq striker Aymen Hussein was reportedly held and questioned for nearly seven hours at Chicago’s O’Hare after arriving with the squad, with his phone inspected; Iraqi sources also say team photographer Talal Salah was detained for more than 10 hours and ultimately denied entry. Anti-Corruption Drive Under New PM: Analysts say Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi’s push to curb corruption faces a steep test as Washington ties cooperation to reforms and militia disarmament, after the arrest of Deputy Oil Minister Adnan Al Jumaili over alleged bribery. Economic Diversification Plan: Iraq’s government is advancing “Iraq 2035,” aiming to lift non-oil revenues to 46% of total income and expand the private sector’s GDP share, amid IMF warnings about instability’s impact on budgets and inflation. Kurdish Cultural Spotlight: Erbil’s first major Kurdish book fair sold over 37,000 books in four days, drawing thousands of visitors and publishers from Europe. Regional Security Shockwaves: Coverage highlights how the US-Iran conflict and Gulf attacks have disrupted shipping and raised pressure for states to rethink security partnerships as Hormuz risks remain a major concern.

Kurdistan-Baghdad Financial Talks: A KRG delegation led by Omed Sabah is set to visit Baghdad within 48 hours to discuss Erbil’s customs and trade disputes, including ASYCUDA implementation and the dollar embargo on Kurdish businessmen—while Baghdad is also expected to send its own team to Erbil. World Cup Entry Scrutiny: Iraq’s striker Aymen Hussein was detained and questioned for nearly seven hours at Chicago O’Hare before being allowed in; the team’s photographer Talal Salah was held over 10 hours and denied entry, with phones searched amid heightened US-Iran tensions. Oil Transit Denial: Baghdad rejected claims it paid Iran for oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, saying exports continue under legal routes and warning against unverified market rumors. Regional Security & Media Clash: Gulf and Saudi-linked outlets frame the US-Iran crisis around energy and shipping risks, while Israeli and Iran-aligned media emphasize escalation and leverage—highlighting how the same conflict is being sold in sharply different political narratives. Safety Crackdown: Iraq’s civil defense says it closed about 11,000 buildings over the past year for fire and safety violations, with Anbar among the hardest hit.